Mobile world congress wrap-up

Mobile world congress, Barcelona, February 17-19 2009
A few notes on from the biggest mobile communications show of the year.

• Innovative start-ups are still coming out
• New user experiences in personal communications
  
• Tapas-enabled networking strong as ever

Innovative start-ups at Mobile peer awards
The other side of MWC, at Palau Musica, I sat on a jury panel with other industry colleagues :
Peggy Anne Salz, of MSearch Groove, Carlos Domingo, Telefonica R&D, Ariel Efrati, Venture Investments, James Whatley, from Spinvox. Mobile Peer Awards complements GSMA's Global Mobile Awardsbecause it focuses on early-stage startups and more informal reviews. You save 500 euros but you'll miss Jamie Cullum at the price giving ceremony. Both awards are nice however. We had an interesting debate after hearing pitches from "emerging start-ups" on communications, content, advertising business models and new devices. Here are some comments on our selection :
PopCatcher from Sweden got our jury award: their pitch is that mobiles should get fresh music every day freely and legally. How many of you have downloaded music last week without checking the rights? Well PopCatcher will listen radio for you, record it and split it into songs in your collection automatically. Our jury debated quite a bit whether that would please the record companies and their layers but anyway we liked having a TiVo of radio. Here is their value proposal:

fring from Tel Aviv won the MoMo community award : 500,000 new users per month worldwide deserves an applause. fringsters talk, chat, and interact with online communities (Facebook, Skype®, MSN®, GoogleTalk, Twitter, and Yahoo!) And fring have done operators deals such as 3UK, Mobilcom. That could have been our jury's choice as an "investor", but we decided that our vote would not add so much value to an already existing success.

Unkasoft Advergaming from Madrid won the audience award: they develop in-games advertising on top of popular video games - they really look at advertising from an end-user usability perspective and have business agreements with Microsoft and others; Perhaps the most important was the fun pitch that Jaime Lanchares, founder and CEO did on stage. This could give ideas to other entrepreneurs.
Aradiom from Istanbul, they provide a portfolio of mobile solutions developed using their own application environment - proven with 400K users; but our jury failed to detect the unique differentiation.
Getjar Networks Lithuania: we all love Getjar's appstore with 10,000 free mobile applications and over 20 million downloads per month; but with so many app stores around our jury foresaw some clouds ahead.
Keynetik from Washington DC: they provide motion SDK and applications for accelerometer enabled mobile; the jury had doubt about the success of the business model, but I like the “rock'n scroll" demo they have on done for the N95.

Mobintech A/S from Copenhagen: the company delivers display glasses to watch live Mobile TV; our jury missed a unique mobile proposition and a differentiation with competitors.
Soonr from Silicon Valley: they offer simple, secure cloud computing file management (35 types) across device (including iPhone, PCs and net printers) and networks, targeting SMB in particular; the jury agreed it's a great value but perhaps in risk of commoditisation.
In the start-up category, with a different jury team, Babajob.com took both community and jury awards on the Monday night’s Mobile Peer Awards in Barcelona.
Babjobs.com from Bangalore : is job website and mobile portal dedicated to connecting informal sector workers - cooks, maids, drivers, guards, etc.- and employers to India ; it's great to see applications that encourage development and economy !
GSMA Mobile innovation global awards
Mobile innovation global award competition took place over the year. The winners are :
Cootek, China won the champion title: software keyboard to accelerate typing a super-charged T9
Intivation, Netherlands : solar panel charger on the back of handsets for developing countries
Mobile Nordic, Norway : mobile CLI including directory search, SMS previews
WorldMate, USA a travel itinerary management application with mobile alerts

New user experiences in personal communications
It's not really new but 7 years after MMS launch, the industry tries to deliver platforms from what users want (sharing with friends using phone address book and social network contacts). I liked the [5] user trials feedback presented during the GSMA RCS workshop, the cross-device demo by Victor Donselaar of Movial and Aude Pichelin from Orange who serves as RCS chair and announced some more cross-operators trials. Why would it succeed this time ? RCS has 60 companies involved, mobile IM adoption in BRIC countries exceeds 10%, mobile social networking exceeds 20% in the youth segment. But of course their are challenges : Nokia partnership with Skype, new solutions as Voxmobili' s social address book on Google's Android, Sony Ericsson's silence on RCS handset release dates.


Tapas-enabled networking strong as ever
Yes, I also love Barcelona tapas and side events : Swedish beers was crowded, Bel Chica GoMo News blender party with Benna Roberts full of insider information, Nokia party intimate and I got the chance to meet nice professionals like Sonia Jain of Bluegiga (just after she told "OPK" all about their brand as viewed by young women and certainly we avoided discussing Bluetooth access solutions). And coming-out of the sauna at Hotel 1898 to attend TechCrunchTalk panel on mobile eco-systems featuring Mike Butcher and Peter Vesterbacka was fun. See you next year at the same place...

3G evolution in Egypt, April 2008

I visited Dubai, April 13th for a meeting with executives from a mobile operator and review 3G multimedia services evolution in Egypt. The country may become as famous for its 3G deployment in emerging markets as for its pyramids .

The pyramids will oversee 70 million subscribers
Egypt is the largest emerging mobile market in the Arab-speaking world with 73 million inhabitants and a strong potential for growth. Mobile was launched in 1999 and penetration now exceeds 42% (probably <30 M subscribers due to multi SIMs) and is forecasted to double( estimate 68 million subscribers) in next 5 years as 3G brings cheaper voice services in the country . Compared to other countries in Middle-East / North Africa, Egypt has the highest annual growth at 170% but third lowest mobile penetration after Lebanon and Syria but may rise to the levels of Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia with similar GDP per capita. The other growth opportunity is in the fixed network development currently at 15% tele-density and 10.5% internet access. (Egypt ‘s 17 Gbps internet backbone access was disrupted in January 2008 by cuts in submarine cables.) As broadband wireless is an access option, the regulator introduced consultations on WiMax and issued 3G licenses .

End of duopoly : usage up, tariffs down
Competition has increased throughout the Middle-East with 3 mobile operators per country in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan. In Egypt, Orascom and Vodafone, controlled the market until 2007 when a new license was awarded to Etisalat. This resulted in a 50% cut in prices to 0.35 LE/min and a decline of ARPU from 15$ (82 EGP) in 2005 to10$ (58 EGP) in 2007. Mobinil and VFE blended ARPU fell by 20% and 12% respectively but low tariffs increased minutes of use to by 15% to MoU to .Again in April 2008, Mobinil announced new price cuts. We expect the operators will have to cut costs by sharing of investments in infrastructure or introducing MVNO retail channels. In addition, the fixed-line monopoly of Egypt Telecom is challenged by the regulator (NTRA) auction of second fixed-line license auction in June 2008. Etisalat and Orascom are possible candidates for this license. Egypt is also introducing number portability using infrastructure from Giza Systems and Telcordia

The following players operate in Egypt :

Orascom Telecom Holding (Mobinil)
48% market share
16 M + (Alohat per-second billing prepaid subscribers)
GSM 900Mhz, 1800Mhz and 1900Mhz, WCDMA 5MHz spectrum
Naguib Sawiris is the well known chairman and CEO of Orascom Telecom.

Vodafone Egypt Telecommunications
42% market share
14 M subscribers
GSM 900Mhz, 1800Mhz and 1900Mhz, WCDMA 5MHz spectrum

Etisalat Misr
10% market share (plans to capture 30% market in next 5 years)
2.0 M subscribers (3.5 M estimate mid 1008)
GSM 900Mhz, 1800Mhz and WCDMA 5MHz spectrum
Ericsson – based 3G HSxPA network covering major cities including Cairo, Alexandria, Zagazig, Tanta, Sharm el Sheikh, Luxor.

Telecom Egypt
Fixed : 11.2 M lines, penetration level < 15%,nhousehold penetration ~ 75%, ARPL ~10$
TE Data ADSL : 0.45 M subscribers (141% growth in 2007)
Internet 0.4 M subscribers (290 M minutes monthly usage, VoIP is illegal for consumers but it legal for corporate accounts through ISPs.)
Telecom Egypt owns 45% of Vodafone Egypt

3G internet + content for early adopters
Vodafone Egypt and Mobinil acquired a 3G license at a cost of 610 M$ each, 20% of Etisalat Misr 2G + 3G license cost. Like in other emerging markets, 3G business case in Egypt includes expansion of the voice capacity, internet access and new entertainment services.

3.5G allows internet access in the marekt underserved by Telekom Egypt (only 0.4 million ADSL subscribers). Already 24% of Egypt’s subscribers use their mobile to browse the internet according to Maktoob Research. Vodafone 3G offering for the for the enterprise sector includes “ mobile connect “ USB modem allowing a browsing and file exchange.

Early adopters are moving on to 3G data services and operators are promoting to high ARPU subscribers to compensate 2G ARPU decline. For an example of the interest by early adopters, check the blog of Tarek Ghazali in Cairo who hosted the carnaval of mobilists in Egypt

Vodafone launched its 3G in the youth segment with video calling, mobile TV (1¢/min or 2.5$/month for 5 hours), and music downloads. Kamera's Egyptian subsidiary SweGypt provides a suite of mobile TV channels, including the Arabic news channel ShortCut, the sports channel SportCall and the entertainment channel WOW! TV. Kamera will also deliver highlights from the EURO2008 football championship. But only 12% of Egyptians are comfortable with the idea of watching live television on their mobiles, based on Maktoob Research market survey. Here is one of Vodafone's adds for 3G video calls.


Mobile advertising is also emerging : Vodafone launched the "Please Call Me" message which comprise a link to video ads or IVR announcements. 52% of subscribers say they are interested in receiving advertisements on their mobiles according to Maktoob Research. And mobile communities are also on the growth path : Vodafone Egypt has launched a student competition to stimulate development of social networking and entertainment services .