2008-12-12

User experience drives business

User experience design, London December 12th 2009
A generation of engineers as mechanics of the communications industry (building network, 3G, WiFi and smart phones). The new generation are pilots taking the driver seat of the business which is user experience. This phase of innovation requires more psychology than technology. And new players are setting the trend : Apple, Google, Yahoo! They built their DNA around understanding of usage contexts and behaviors and delivering more than visual UI or efficient bandwidth. They offer end to end experiences across multiple touch points. How do they do it ? A few examples gathered during industry workshops in London :
  1. Understand users
  2. Generating persuasive ideas
  3. Compelling user interaction
  4. Delivering the experience
Understanding users
  • Mirjana Spasojevic runs ethnographic consumer studies for Nokia Research and previously at HP. She keeps asking the : What are people are doing on web? Here are a few answers :
  • Jeanine : accesses Yellowpages.com from Sprint to find phone numbers and addresses. Why ? it is cheaper than 411 ($1.49)
  • Fred: Checks and trades stocks at work on his Blackberry. Why ? his company PC is monitored and he doesn’t want his boss to know about it.
  • Christina : orders pizza while on her way home. Why ?: So that she doesn’t have to talk and waste time
  • Kim : “I would feel naked without it [my phone].” – Why? he would feel “vulnerable and disappointed about lost opportunities”.
  • Jonathan : “Should I buy this shirt?” Why ? to get friends advices and make solo activities social.
  • Josephine : “I text my friends on the tube coming from work.” Why ? a remedy for loneliness.
  • Nicky “… this was a picture taken of me and my friends, I emailed it to my Sidekick.” Why? as visual reminders of who she is, to reinforce a sense of identity and relationships. This behavior is continuous and ritualistic. There is a compelling emotional link that motivates people. Sending images, choosing an avatar or a login name – these are all acts of presentation and self representation.
  • Michael von Roeder, head of UE, at Vodafone lists the following methodologies : managed panels, random trials, life tracking, network analysis, user testing, testing with users, ethnographic contextual enquiry, participatory design.
  • User research tools for real-time collecting, filtering, presenting and sharing the data from usage of the phone are available from The Astonishing Tribe .











Generating persuasive ideas
  • Kath Straub chief scientist at Human Factors focuses on mobile persuasion. The goal is to understand why users WILL do versus CAN do. They want to do something in their life not on their phone or PC. We need to identify blocks and barriers : they don’t need another toy, are afraid about security, learning effort, wasted time. But they can benefit from handset playing the role of connector, concierge, coach.
  • Ian Curson, Vodafone: says "it is important to have the whole company thinking about user experience". One challenge is to help users explore new kinds of experiences: “two people going out”, “browsing maps to find the restaurant”. Mobility can be enhanced: “have you seen someone walking while looking at their iPhone?” Sharing evolved when Youth started to expose themselves.
  • Another example is O2 Cocoon device, designed to match the music sharing brand of O2 Telefonica in UK. Markus Hohl, head of design at O2 has presented the story of the birth and launch of the O2 Cocoon. Here is the first design by Syntes studio. The final product was released 16 month later. But O2 still admits that it is difficult to measure the value of user experience (ROI / ARPU or churn reduction).

Creating compelling user interaction
  • Terence Warmbier, from, Immersion says that “design loves technology”. Future handsets will incorporate many UI features such as soft keys, motion control, camera interaction, scroll wheels, GPS, NFC communications, biometrics, proximity and light sensor. On haptics, that provides a touch feedback, he says that “output physics rocks!”
  • The astonishing tribe also deliver s software to create the Wow! effect. Natural interaction (NI) builds on human understanding of space and objects, reduces cognitive load of the user is reduced using approaches such as
  • Physics engines, textures, gravity ...
  • V results of actions mimicking natural world,
  • “Haptics” interface technology via the sense of touch by applying forces, vibrations and/or motions.
One example is the social pond project which offers a visualization of social communications, address book. Another example is Projecto UI which offers a new way of experiencing music.

Lastly the Cube allows users to twist, tap, rotate, shake to enjoy your music on iTunes.
  • Francis MacDougall, CTO GestureTek focuses on gesture interaction, enabled by optical tracking or accelerometers and sensors. It has been popularized by the Wii. Applications include bowling swing motion or face exploration such as DoCoMo front facing cameras.
Current devices with motion detection include :
  • Sony Ericsson K850i : image orientation
  • Sony Ericsson W910i : image orientation, shake control for music, game, camera
  • Sony Ericsson W580i : Image orientation, shake control, pedometer
  • Nokia N95 : orientation control
  • Nokia 5500 : Pedometer
  • Samsung SCH-S310 : UI control, music, “write a number in the air”
  • Samsung V603SH : UI control
  • Apple iPhone : image orientation, shake control
(Source : Gesturetek)

  • Jefferson Han of Perceptive Pixel multi-touch sensors demos have been seen several million times on the web.

  • Risto Lahdesmaki from Idean, also involves users and fine-tunes interactions using low tech : he gives users a piece of wood and observes usage, an approach that had been used for the palm pilot.

Delivering the experience
One example of end to end innovation is 3’s Skype mobile, delivering in 2006 a complete value proposition to for social users : calls to Skype anywhere, low price points, reaching out people not in your address book. Carl Taylor, director of applications at Hutchinson Europe explained the choice of a dedicated handset provided users a single click to call or to access to mobile internet services. In 2009, the INQ1 device integrates native applications such as Facebook, Windows Live Messenger, eBay, Last.fm, Skype, Google and Yahoo.

2008-11-09

Audacity in communications


In March 2007 I told Senator Obama how much he was improving America’s image abroad – he replied that greater changes would come with his election -. Indeed most of the world applauded the president-elect and there was fascination on advanced communications that supported his campaign.
This post collects some information on innovative e-politics, infrastructure and policies for communications from this election campaign.

Innovations in e-politics

Internet adoption by Americans to get political information jumped to 40% of (compared to 31% in the 2004 campaign) as reported by a Pew research on a sample of 2,251 adults. Politicians and supporters could gained easy assistance to move on-line from groups like e-politics or the Institute for Politics, Democracy and the Internet. Obama has been called "tech president," as democrats demonstrated better use of technology than republicans or previous presidential candidates as summarized by Sarah Lai Stirland in Wired
The Webwas the dominant media. Chris Hughes blogs about the future of My.BarackObama site. The site has 1.5 million accounts and this community created 35,000 local groups, hosted over 200,000 events.

Online video in particular stormed the stage: 35% of Americans have watched in absolute time (views * video length)around 15 million hours (Obama 14.5 McCain 0.5) including campaign commercials, debates, interviews, and speeches. David Burch of TubeMogul analyzed the value of this channel.

Social networks and blogs
were used by up to 49% of online users: on Facebook and MySpace supporters had 3.6 million pages (Obama 3 McCain 0.6)

Mobile communications included SMS and downloaded applications. SMS alerts from short code 62262 (OBAMA) delivered messages such as this one
Less than a week until Election Day on Nov. 4th! Barack needs your help. REPLY to this msg with your 5 digit ZIP CODE for local Obama news and voting info
Barack Obama sent 3 million SMS to supporters to announce Senator Joe Biden choice for vice president (Mobile marketer). Similarly Rock the Vote, encouraged young people (18-29, 18% of electorate) to vote, using text-messaging campaigns to over 100,000 subscribers and called 13’000 on election day. The Obama campaign also set mobile web site at http://obamamobile.mobi or http://m.barackobama.com . The Mobile future coalition has recorded a panel discussing mobile impact of elections.

Online fundraising and advertising

This campaign broke records in both raising and spending money on media. Nearly 10% of internet users donated money online to candidates in 2008, compared to 3% in 2006, according to Pew Research. In 1999, MoveOn has been the pioneer in internet fundraising (MoveOn had 1 million making 370,000 donations totaling $88 million for Obama'08). In total Democrats raised a record-breaking $780 million in contributions from more than 3 million people, many of whom donated through the web. Republicans raised $340 million. [Federal Election Commission, September]

Obama's campaign spent $293 million on TV ads, according to TNS Media Intelligence. In addition $8 million was spent on Google, Yahoo, Facebook, news Web sites, ad networks, and in-game ad firm Massive. McCain spent $132 million on TV ads during the same period. (campaign spending in media was close to $500 million and 50% of the contributions).

Hopes for a better communication infrastructure

Despite the great shift to online campaign, some issues remain. Pew research noted that 60% of online Americans feel that the internet is a megaphone for extreme viewpoints and a source of misinformation. Responding to this rise of media on the Web, along with the decline of public trust, Newstrust recruited an online community of 8’000 news consumers, journalists, educators and students. They launched an election news hunt initiative in July to recommend the best coverage on the presidential elections, using community review tool.

How can the momentum be sustained
beyond the campaign, for 40% of the electorate who went on-line? The technology engaged people to participate in volunteer groups and to organize off-line events that could support better government. But will this all stop when the funding and marketing efforts disappear ? The Obama web site promises to create a new level of transparency, accountability and participation for America’s citizens….Obama will appoint the nation’s first Chief Technology Officer (will it be Google’s CEO ?) to ensure that our government and all its agencies have the right infrastructure, policies and services for the 21st century.

About the competitive infrastructure, the programs focuses on net neutrality and spectrum expansion. Net neutrality through federal legislation will allow all applications, services and devices to operate on all access networks. It announces a review of competition in the wireless space and "smarter, more efficient and more imaginative use of spectrum” meaning the 700MHz auctions. Telecom employees had mixed feelings and contributed $3.5 million to Obama versus $4.1 million to McCain.

There are other good intentions to support innovation in communications. Obama's program promises to expand funding of broadband infrastructure to compare with Japan, South Korea and Finland. And Silicon Valley is likely to benefit from an increase of H-1B non-immigrant visas to recruit engineers and scientists. Tech employees seemed pleased and backed Obama in a 5:1 ratio donating $21 million ($1.5 million at the 20 largest Silicon Valley companies).
Many other blogs have been written on this topic. NewsFeedResearcher offers a consolidation of them.

2008-11-07

Are magic phones getting closer ?

Advanced technology is like magic said Arthur Clarke, author of the novel 2001 Space Odyssey . This was echoed in Google’s video of young end-user needs. With so many technology innovations in 2008, mobile applications environments may look like magic. Among others : Apple iPhone and Appstore have been the talk of the town, Adobe’s Open screen project should enable more visual experiences (such as Flash in Brew), Google launch of Open Handset Alliance's Android and G1 phone introduces new players in the game, Nokia acquisition of Symbian and its release into the Symbian Foundation consolidates its importance, LiMo compliant devices have been released, lots of developments have occurred in the mobile browser area such as OMTP launched the BONDi project. How can we summarize this for developers of magic communication services ?
In this post I look at 3 levels of mobile software :
1. Mobile operating systems
2. Application execution environments and ODPs
3. Mobile browsers and widgets
To measure progress toward magic in the last 3 years, I also checked Tom Godber 2007 summary and Andreas Constantinou's 2006 report

Commoditization of operating systems
The fragmentation of platforms is the biggest problem for application developers. Ricardo Varella of Yahoo! summarized bluntly his frustration during September’s Mobile Monday London. This seems to consolidate slowly into 4 smartphone OS choices : Symbian, Windows, Linux, Mac OS. And the trend of royalty-free, open source licensing will help unleash more innovation (except on Microsoft platforms). Gartner estimates the following smartphone market share
Symbian 57%
Windows 12%
Linux 8%
Mac OS 3%
Other 20%

Symbian
The Symbian Foundation platform should soon become available under a royalty-free (Eclipse EPL) license. This will leverage the leading market share(200 million handsets, 235 models 5 OEMs, 4 million developers,9000 applications). Different user interfaces variants exist today, and a choice will have to be made in favor of S60 (Nokia, 60 million) but discarding UIQ (Motorola / Sony Ericsson, 6+ models) and MOAP-S (NTT DoCoMo/Fujitsu/Sharp/Mitsubishi). Nokia will also contribute the Qt UI framework from Qt Software (acquired from Trolltech in June. Ari Jaaksi's Blog provides a good discussion of the merit of the Symbian Foundation.

Windows Mobile
Licensable OS without consortium-contribution model, Windows CE kernel source code under shared source licenses. Windows Mobile 6 was released at the 3GSM World Congress 2007 and currently includes : .NET compact framework, ASP.NET mobile (renders markup on different mobile screens), Silverlight for mobile (leverages code for browser-based applications).

Linux
Android has attracted much of the publicity around mobile Linux, putting some of the more experienced suppliers under its shadow. Rich Miner presented Google’s Android and G1 at EmTech08 future of mobile panel in September, one day after the G1 launch : "platforms should be driven by human factors, created by creative software developers, using contemporary tools". Linux aplication platforms include :
Open Handset Alliance (Google's Android)
LiMo foundation has attracted more than 50 members and 23 commercially available phones.
Other linux mobile contributors include
Access
Azingo
Purple Labs leverages 1 billion browsers installed base (acquired from Openwave)
Wind River Systems (acquired MIZI Research)
MontaVista (Mobilinux, platform)
NTT DoCoMo (MOAP-L platform)
Nokia Maemo an open source product since 2005.


Fragmentation of application execution environments

At the AEE level with virtual machines and visual programming differences across devices, operators and other variants. Several suppliers announced this year their own ideas on how cross-devices should be implemented.

J2ME
Java ME is the market leading platform with over 2 billion handsets today and there is innovation announced for 2009 with a mobile edition of JavaFX allowing rich internet applications (RIAs). But device fragmentation remains and J2ME provides multiple configurations of Java virtual machines or profiles, such as the Mobile Information Device Profile (MIDP) 1.0, 2.0, 2.1 (MSA), the Connected Limited Device Configuration (CLDC) 1.0 and 1.1, and the Connected Device Configuration (CDC). Applications need to target a specific profile, as profiles are assembled for a specific configuration and there are multiple implementation of JSR software libraries including :
Mobile User Interface Customization API for Java ME (JSR 258)
CDC 1.1 (JSR 218)
Foundation Profile 1.1 (JSR 219)
Personal Basis Profile 1.1 (JSR 217) JSR.
Some example of platforms include
Esmertec (Jbed JVM technology is implemented on more than 200 million units including Android platforms)
Aplix (JBlend is embedded on over 650 phone models)
XCE (mostly deployed in Asia)
Google Android JVM, called Dalvik, does not support JAD/J2ME directly but the J2ME MIDP RUNNER for SDK 1.0 allow running J2ME applications without code change.

Adobe Flash
Flash is a a clear favourite for designers and developers and is available on more than 500 million handsets (this is Gartner estimates, Adobe forecasts growth to 1 billion by 2009) and is. Adobe made news in May with by announcing the Open Screen Project. Together with 20 companies (excluding Apple, Google, and Microsoft) it will enable Flash and AIR runtime technology to be updated over the air on phones and mobile Internet devices. Adobe also skips licensing fees for devices and opens up the SWF, QVM, FLV/F4V specs (it does not make them open source) with FlashCast protocol and AIR players to follow. This includes the licences for video codec such as ON2, Sorenson, H.264, ACC and Nellymoser. The main benefit for developers is that Adobe supports a community-driven porting of the full platform. Apple iPhone remains an exception, apparently due to processor speed limitation as disclosed by Steve Jobs in March – though Adobe has a version available for iPhone emulators.

Microsoft Silverlight
Silverlight is Microsoft’s answer to Flash, and comes with great developer tools, even if it does not have the design community. Silverlight is a cross-browser, cross-platform, and cross-device plug-in for delivering RIA .NET based media experiences. Microsoft announced Silverlight for mobile will be available initially on Windows Mobile and Nokia S60. Recently at PDC 2008 Microsoft (Amit Chopra and Giorgio Sardo) demonstrated services that play media, handle gestures, animations and web services and leveraging Visual Studio SDK. Earlier in the year, Microsoft (Amit Chopra) announced the mobile plans at MIX 2008.

Qualcomm BREW
BREW (Binary runtime environment for wireless) runs on BREW RTOS with an installed base of 150 million CDMA handsets from 45 manufacturers. This year it added Flash support to the existing UiOne user interface and APIs for C/C++ and Java. It implements a transaction-based shared revenue business models, claiming 1 billion $ earnings by 2500 developers in 2007.

ODPs to hide fragmentation
On-device portals (ODPs) have progressed in recent years, leveraging mobile clients on AEEs or RIA technology, customized for accessing and interacting with content and information. ODPs typically improve visual user interfaces and response time with caching. But they still implement proprietary frameworks and require OTA download to multiple handsets as we wait for more ubiquitous AEEs or the emergence of mobile web technologies. Some examples include :

BlueStreak Technology
MachBlue platform with APIs and SDK, for designing mobile multimedia content delivery.
Streamezzo delivers Universal Software Platform for delivering rich media mobile services on clients compatible with Windows Mobile, Symbian, Brew, Java, Linux, Android, and Apple’s proprietary iPhone O/S. It references 50 customers among mobile operators, handset manufacturers.
SurfKitchen is a full ODP suite for content download, Widget configuration, streaming media, event management
Action Engine ODP platform offers usability, strong OTA update and management, and advertising. Clients run on Java, BREW handsets.
Cibenix On-Device Portal (ODP), launched an idle screen-based dashboard for ONE in Austria
Tech Unified mPortal provides ODP clients for J2ME, Symbian


Innovative browsers environment ?
In 2008, the innovation trend converged towards browsers as mobile execution environment. Over 100 million mobile Ajax browsers have been shipped on smartphones like the iPhone and N95. Mobile browser-based applications leverage all fixed web developments such as client-side scripting and presentation : HTML, XHTML (WAP profiles), CSS, JavaScript, XMLHttpRequest (AJAX), JavaScript extensions for handset APIs. This promises to bring the community of 25 million web developers to mobile.

Two early limitations of mobile browsers are starting to be addressed :
- Access to phone features : there are minimal and incompatible implementations of APIs available. OMTP Bondi initiative issued in August draft specifications for standard APIs that will gives a widget or website control of application invocation, camera, call log, location, storage, messaging, PIM, device status, user interaction this is complemented by a framework for stronger policy and security. OMTP expects compatible handsets to be available in 2009.
- Network limitations : REST/XHTML are heavy protocols not optimized for low bandwidth and error-prone radio network. Proxy based browsers (such as Opera Mini, UCWEB, TeaShark) attempt to optimize network traffic using a network-based proxy server to compresses pages and interactions received by a thin client browser.
Browser platform examples include :
S60Webkit a webkit opensource browser ported to Symbian OS release 3 (S60) by Nokia
Opera Mobile 9.5 has been installed on 100 million phones complemented by Opera Mini (proxy based) and Opera and an SDK.
Teleca offers Obigo for Symbian, Windows, Linux complemented by messaging applications
Access offers NetFront mobile browser (300 million installed in embedded devices)
Mozilla mobile Firefox is available for Windows mobile and Linux platforms.
Safari a webkit opensource browser ported to Mac OS X by Apple
UCWEB Technology UCWEB, Version 6 is popular in China with 11 million downloads
TeaShark a free browser


Mobile widgets
Widgets (window gadgets) offer the most innovative application environments for handsets. Defined in W3C widget 1.0 , Widgets are client-side web application for displaying and updating local or remote data, packaged in a way to allow a download and installation on a client machine or device. Widgets typically run as stand alone applications outside of a web browser (on the idle screen or as other applications). Typical examples are accessories (calendar, address book), information services (weather), they are displayed on menus or icons or the idle screen. Widgets are developed using web technology including HTTP 1.1, SVG, XMLHttpRequest, HTML4, ECMAScript, CSS21. John Puterbaugh provides more comments on mobile widgets on his post Some of the popular environments and libraries include :
WidSets mobile runtime for MIDP 2.0 J2ME, SDK (XML, CSS, Helium), by Nokia in 2006
Bluepulse mobile runtime for MIDP 2.0 J2ME
Yahoo! http://mobile.yahoo.com/gallery mobile runtime for Yahoo! Go 3.0, iPhone, Windows Mobile device, Nokia S60, Blueprint SDK (XML, server-side PHP, JavaSscript).
Opera Widgets
Bling Software http://www.blingsoftware.com, AJAX mobile runtime for MIDP 2.0 J2ME and BREW.
Webwag mobile runtime for MIDP 2.0 J2ME, SDK (XML, CSS, Helium), APIs
Zumobi widgets with zoom-space user interface for Windows Mobile and RIM, spun out of Microsoft
Joemoby WidX mobile runtime for MIDP 2.0 J2ME, compliant with the W3C draft specifications
Bicon over 7000 widgets for RSS feeds, Web searches, microbloging, advertising
Mywidz (beta version) mobile widget editor and community services for end-users
Celltop mobile client framework based on widgets, includes personalized content, messaging, unique design of two rotating cells.

2008-07-31

Brainstorming at HP Labs Palo Alto, July, 2008

With a bunch of colleagues we gathered this summer at HP Labs Palo Alto for brainstorming session on the evolution of communications. I reflected on some innovation processes at HP over the years.
Bill Hewlett's and mobile innovation.
Collaborative approaches to service innovation.
Blue ocean ideas for our next step developments

Bill Hewlett's and mobile innovation.
I stepped into Bill Hewlett's preserved office where in 1970 he supported the company's 1st mobile product, the iconic HP 35 calculator designed to fit his shirt pocket. The story was published in HP Journal, in 1972 : project idea in fall 1970, manufacturing in November 1971, 100'000 units sold in 1972 and HP had to print the following statement : "orders for the HP-35 have exceeded expectations to such extent that a waiting list has been established". I met Bill twice in the 80's to discuss medical technology advances and I remember him as a very strong engineer, curious about many different things. His guiding principle was the famous HP Way stated "a deep respect for the individual, a dedication to affordable quality and reliability, a commitment to community responsibility, and a view that the company exists to make technical contributions for the advancement and welfare of humanity." and the operational implementations was called "management by wandering around". Thedesign of the HP 35 included many aspects : mechanics, electronics, and the original "reverse polish notation" that got adepts addicted. The team included France Rode, Thomas Whitney, Chung Tung, Ed Lijenwall, Dave Cochran and I wonder what they would say about today's smart phones.

Collaborative approaches to service innovation.
HP's current approaches include the innovation program office (IPO), modeled after business plan and start-ups competitions. One of the great program sponsors is Phil McKinney, the CTO of HP's personal systems group and the author of the killer innovations podcast .

Some of Phil's views :
"a perfect storm is coming due to fundamental shifts in impact of technology and user experiences. What are the user experiences ? "Always connected " but not today's hotspot, but something insanely simple" and much more smarter devices. About virtual collaboration, the challenge is that the world is flat : China's top 1% student exceed the number of students in the US so the ability to collaborate worldwide becomes critical."
Another great sponsor is Susie Wee, leading a team of immersive user experience designers who produced HP Halo collaboration room that make it cool to to work from our home town with teams in Tokyo, Bristol, Singapore, Grenoble without burning tons of CO2 nor bearing the pain of lengthy audio conferences.

Blue ocean ideas for communications in the coming yearsI repurposed selected ideas from Andrea Constantinou's mobile mega trends to stimulate our discussions :
1. Telecom industry must choose between 2 options : global cloud service delivery (new) or efficient traffic infrastructure (old)
2. Communication services have 2 levels : personalization (new) or commodity mass-market foundation (old) ; a side effect of this is the impact on monetization which now includes advertising (mobile ~ 5B$ in 2008, on-line ~ 24B$ in 2006) in addition to communications.
3. Content services are transformed by social communications : remixing and sharing experiences, across people, services and devices are the new media.
4. Device software and the value is bubbling up : of course the advanced devices are fueling this, IDC says 170 million units will be shipped in 2008, a growth of 40% so you need advanced OS and application environments. The OS level is also flattened despite fragmentation (Nokia's push will keep Symbian 60% market share but Mac OS X, BlackBerry OS, and Windows Mobile will grow faster). So the value "bubbles up : on-device-portals, idle screen applications, active screen applications, user interface frameworks, - web, widget and AJAX runtimes, trans-coding proxies.
5. User experiences rule the business : we all know this - but in a tech-driven industry we did not practice the process transition towards lead -user driven design processes.
6. OpenSource and cloud computing are destroying network enablers : new web service APIs will mean more wholesale access, Open SER, Open IMS , Asterix will make network elements cheaper and more accessible. The opportunity is that as the football field gets flattened, people who run faster on applications will win a share of the new business. HP is got on the way to become #1 IT company worldwide when it dropped it's operating system (for Unix) and processor technology (for a co-development with Intel) assets into the open space.
The blue ocean strategy of Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne is another way to look at this I have used for several years. Communication industry is in a red ocean, boundaries are defined by spectrum licenses and market share and pricing influenced by regulators. With up to 6 mobile licenses per country, core communication services and network technology become commodity, leading to cutthroat competition turning the red ocean bloody. A blue ocean communication industry, in contrast, would be a yet unknown market space, untainted by competition where demand would be created rather than fought over. Is there such a way to make the competition irrelevant , executing fast at low cost ? So we ran an idea competiton on the topic, generating hundred ideas on the following themes :

Create and capture new demand : play on social networks and user generated content innovations, embedding communication into devices and services where it has not been possible before. My colleague Agnieszka Thonet suggested cool ideas for my fridge. And other colleagues at HP Labs think about networking the dumbest devices in our homes.

Create uncontested market space : help lead users create new user experiences, new devices, vertical applications, allow market entry with speed and surprise. That's what Apple or Facebook did but there's many more markets to be created. My friend Peter Vesterbacka has focused his ConnectedDay social network services on 4-year old children.

Make the competition irrelevant : perhaps using the freemium business model where communications is a way to merchandize brick and mortar goods. That's the old #800 idea and perhaps Ebay's rationale for acquiring Skype.

Align the whole system of a company in the pursuit of differentiation and low cost : use cloud services delivering all services to consumers and for enterprise communications. Google's has done a lot to start this but there's plenty more. Can we get beyond OpenID and Opensocial for personal/virtual identity management including open access to presence/cell ID from HLRs within secured levels of privacy ? Could we good beyond Paypal with mobile macro, micro and nanopayment communication tools ? Can we have ubiquitous storage, access and sharing of user content across social networks and devices ?

Asking such questions around us got us plenty of new ideas during these hot summer days. After all these are good times for audacity.

2008-07-10

Mobile Europe 2.0, July 4th, Barcelona

Notes from Mobile Europe 2.0 in Barcelona, a great program prepared by Rudy de Waele, Gregory Gorman, Daniel Applequist, Peter Vesterbacka, Gregory Gorman. Rudy’s wrap-up says it all if you want to skip my in-extenso version.
Key challenges for mobile 2.0 include :
> Leveraging up Web 2.0 faster
> Attracting investors despite hurdles
> Bring together operators and service innovators
> Building on successful business models
> Bringing to market innovative user experiences from start-ups
Catching up with Web 2.0 ?
There seemed to be a bit of frustration in the mobile social media panel that mobile 2.0 is not yet booming. Tommy Ahlers, CEO Zyb (just acquired by Vodafone)advice: simply care about the end-user [experience], avoid filling the screen with ads, fix fundamentals and get services off the ground. Smaller operators are better at doing that and more innovative but he promised to change Vodafone for the better.
Charlie Schick, editor Nokia Conversations recommends to avoid the clash between web services for big screen/keyboard and those mobile on small handsets. No one is going to dominate the other.
Alex Romero, Director Yahoo! thinks it requires tuning the eco-system leaving room for MNOs and other players. And Doug Richards, CEO Trutap summed it up : We are only at the very beginning of the industry, openness will create better user experiences.

Attracting investors ?
Rudy de Waele invited me to join this VC perspective discussion with a corporate venturing view. What’s holding VC investments and IPO’s back ? One issue is the business scalability mentioned by Maximilian Niederhofer from Atlas Venture: the fragmentation is due to the number of devices, he gave the example of Atlas’s investment [32M$ with Partech] in Dailymotion, now 60 million users the web but too difficult to move to mobile. It’s clear that mobile 2.0 does not compete with web 2.0 investment opportunities. Imma Martinez, from Stradbroke advisors was very vocal about the channel friction issues such as revenue share agreements, low flat-rate data offerings, 9-12 months to negotiate carrier agreements, a view shared by the panel. In her blog, she refers to mobile services “corrida de toros” (bullfight).

I proposed a more balanced view between short-term business improvement with longer-term innovations opportunities. At this moment, corporate funding, M&A or simply business deals may be appropriate to mobile 2.0. This is because mobile 2.0 can immediately enhance today’s Telco or enterprise “brick and mortar” services which have a sound business model. A good example in the conference was Dial2Do that combine voice service monetization with web 2.0 services (see below). I mentioned the business model of mobilizing HP Snapfish, photo sharing offering 9c print in partnership with 12’000 outlets and used by 50 million on-line users in 20 countries storing 2 billion photos. Another example would be mobilizing publishing with readers social network services complementing on-demand order and printing industry enabled by HP’s Indigo printers. Around the consumer electronics and content businesses, there is value in adding connectivity to the various home devices, for example mobilizing the exchange of play lists and on-line content preferences.
At the same time, looking into the 3-5 years future, I foresee great opportunities for VC-funded breakthrough innovations that will exploit LTE bandwidth, new video processing capabilities and enhanced devices. This is where there is a need for innovative start-ups and the VC exits should be plentiful.

Understanding operators ?
The operator panel discussion exposed the misunderstanding between mobile start-ups and mobile operators. Mobile start-up innovation and users expect a fully open and cheap playground; in contrast operators focus on CAPEX/OPEX optimization to monetize scarce mobile broadband resources. Anastassia Lauterbach, EVP Strategy, T-Mobile International explained these issues clearly but bluntly : P2P mobile data is 38% of traffic (YouTube alone is 17%), with less < 200€ data revenues. Applying Moore’s law, the flat-fee business model does not scale : 5-year CAPEX required is 70B€ in Germany [~300€ /subscriber/year]. She also mentioned the impact across the value chain that supports mobile 2.0 : network > platforms > middleware > customer care and service. The subsequent debate with the audience was heated and inconclusive (despite Raimo van der Klein and Gregory Gorman’s moderation attempts). I would have suggested at least a differentiation of mobile 2.0 services based on their real-time bandwidth requirement and alternate access points such as Femtocells and WiMax for video streaming.

Among other good comments, Martin Duval, CEO Bluenove and director Orange start-up program was positive on opening-up and offering flat-fee data services to bring ad-funded content services and rather than cannibalizing. Under the motto "together we can more" Orange wants to educate start-ups to develop mutually beneficial business cases. He also referred to Orange’s opening-up to Nokia Ovi. Gian Paolo Balboni, head of innovation Telecom Italia mentioned innovation by providing access to network assets through web middleware services. Unai Iturburu, head of Vodafone Spain R&D indicated that we need better industry alignment to combine web and mobile services and quoted Vodafone’s Betavine.

Already a successful business !
The open business models panel showed 5 successes ranging from off-deck, MVNO and on-deck approaches.
Chris Liu, of Fjord gave the example of Flirtomatik business model of “ego-services”. They have 120M PV/month, selling digital flowers and kisses. He referred to the challenged of supporting handsets.
Leif Fågelstedt, COO Blyk explained how they monetize their “understanding of users”. The 7th media is less about content than it is about context” . Blyck's 900 campaigns resulted in 29% response rate (up to 60% in some targeted campaigns). Most are “conversations” such as SMS > SMS response > MMS > WAP menu. He says the MVNO business model is a win-win for the operators and not cannibalizing as it brings new revenues from advertising, they are expanding in Europe in the fall. Blyck’s emphasis is on personal communications but there is room for expanding into content and social networking. But right now you can’t solve the handset fragmentation issue so it’s too early.
Ilja Laurs, founder Getjar sees it as an off-deck community of downloaders with an enormous diversity (10K applications, 200K download/month, example: flashlight replacing lighters in discos, battery drainer , Opera Mini 7M dl). For him, mobile billing is a nightmare so advertising sponsoring is a better solution. Ray Anderson, founder Bango said they combine off-deck and on-deck and see MNOs opening-up. Laurence Aderemi, from Admob now serves 3 billion ads/month 100% off-deck.

Awards winners and next wave
The team assembled a great line-up of start-ups. We met them the previous day at ESADE where they gave a VC-pitch. I’ve classified them in 3 themes because of my particular interest but presentations were grouped by financing stage.

Personalization, social networks
Zipipop : they have invented “intention broadcasting” for your social life, casual meetings among friends and even for your “sex life”. It is a really cool user interface, a la T9 for broadcasting “Let’s meet for coffee at this place”. I enjoyed discussing with Helene Auramo, Zipipop CEO their monetization ideas and suggested “intentional advertising” like “the cook is in a really good mood at this place”. Viral marketing by SMS invites. Richard von Kaufmann gave an excellent pitch and had the T-shirt with the best logo Zipi-fish. *** Best Early Stage Start-up.
Rummble, is a location-aware social networking for discovery of events and recommendations, with micro-blogging.*** They won an award.
Aka-aki, proximity-aware networking. Personalize, on the go, share emotions and content, lifestyle; cross-media, location-based advertising. I like the fact that it gathers contacts along the way, kind of an active address-book. They have an excellent video pitch and I had posted about them earlier.
Shout'em, mobile social media : White-labeled Twitter-like service, launched as Zrikka in Croatia, (200K subscribers) they also have a photo sharing site. Their ambition is to support Symbian, iPhone and Android handsets.
YouLynx, mobile social media with geo-tagged upload/download and IM/VoIP. They address the PC/mobile convergence and synchronize address book, communications, content on both devices. On-portal deployment at O2, Vodafone, Telefonica, America Moviles, Orange, Airtel, DoCoMo . Presentatin by Jorge Gonzalez
Taptu , mobile social-aware search Stefan Butlin, Taptu CTO, presented
Mobiluck , mobile location based IM, chat and social networking. MobiLuck helps you share your location, spot friends nearby, and meet interesting people and places along the way!
Nimbuzz, Free IM, txt, PC calls, mobile VOIP in progress. Client for 22 brands/500 models. Great functionality with Skype, Gtalk, AIM, Windows Live messenger, Yahoo!Jabber, Myspace, Facebook.
Palringo, mobile IM client for sharing text, photos, and voice IMs with groups or individuals.

Multimedia user interfaces
Dial2do, a great application that uses voice to connect to web 2.0 services. It goes beyond traditional unified messaging (e.g. SpinnVox) or voice activated dialing and let’s you Twitter or Facebook in addition. Other services include : Jaiku, Tumblr, Jajah, Zimbra, etc… And voice allows immediately monetization. The US market seems ready for this : 60% of wireless calls while driving 87 min/day. Their go to market includes packaging in retail with Plantronic, Jabra and other plastic telephony appliances. Ivan McDonald , the CEO has a very convincing pitch. ***They won an award.
Kooaba,is a revloutionalry cool image search engine that fits perfectly with cameraphone capabilities. “Shoot a picture of a record cover and get the music” kind of experience. Herbert Bay is an alumni of ETH Zurich.
Via mobility, they developed a mobile widget execution platform to leverage the 150K widgets on the web and adapt them to 100K phones. You get your customized idle screen for notification and contents. This was presented by Serge Crebassa. This is important if your bet is that widgets are the way to innovate without handset fragmentation issues. The core skills of the company is in the embedded AEE and again this is critical.
Clicmobile: Alex Kummerman, CEO presented a really impressive visual city guide with celebrities launched for Louis Vuiton, walk with celebrities for 12 € in Shanghai, Beijing. The foundation is a social network but it’s really the user interface and the quality of content that attracted my attention
ViiF, video enabled mobile entertainment : Most of the service is via download, but the services can be tried out by video call 22557 in Germany, easy to customize with a web interface. They have revenue-sharing agreement with content providers. A welcomed competitor to iTunes video.
Secufone, developing specific user interfaces for iPhone for safety/security applications. They transition from a custom-handsets business for elderly people and security firms. A good example of business cases from focusing on user experience within a niche.
Mippin mobilizing web by adapting sites. This blog can be viewed there.

Monetization with advertizingUnkasoft, mobile sponsored gaming : Repurposing mobile games catalogues for advertising campaigns e.g. Pepsi Max (a game of saccharin vs. sugar) Contact : Jaume Lanchares

2008-06-17

Telecom magazine webinar on IMS, June 2008

I contributed to a Webinar on IMS for wireline/wireless networks , June 12 , 2008

Is there light at the end of the IMS tunnel ?
I joined a panel to discuss IMS approaches to deliver rich communications. These days, the industry has become skeptical of telecom standardization’s ability to support cool services, especially with the competing wave of web and device innovations. But our moderator Stephane Teral, from Infonetics Research compared 2011 market of 8B$ VoIP infrastructure (migration of PSTN to VoIP is becoming mainstream) and 1B$ on IMS, (a significant ramp-up). I commented that perhaps it’s unfair to compare IMS and web 2.0 because the requirements have changed since the original specifications to connect voice devices and not to connect people with services.
But what if we were asked to develop IMS 2.0 today using the best of IT architectures ?
I think we would certainly come up with an open user profile, such as HSS GUP and content streaming control. I gave the example that HP OpenCall's IMS/HSS developments for user profiling can be extended to enhance group communications with a web 2.0 flavor. Also on the panel, Dan Bantukul from Tekelek explained that IMS is not about killer services but a framework for deploying IP services independently from media, network access and transport. It should be an incremental evolution rather than a greenfield deployment. He stressed the pivotal role of session management (CSCF) and SIP Proxy (RFC 3261) . Another panelist, Adam Stein, from MuDynamics talked about roll-out processes and avoiding problems and pain points before they occur. He mentioned the complex and symbiotic behavior of the many (>20 software and hardware) IMS components and methodology necessary to test the system as a whole. End to end testing and QoS validation is a necessary ingredient to any standard-based multi-vendor and distributed deployment.

Can IMS support visual experiences on consumer devices ?
I said yes, but enhancements are required on IMS/MRF (such as HP's OCMP) to support video streaming and trans-coding across mobile, PC and IPTV. It’s more about content adaptation and visual interaction. This triggered questions from the audience on session support across multiple home appliances such as IPTV and phones. I wished I was more familiar with the work of Oliver Friedrich, et al, at Fraunhofer FOKUS who have published about their IPTV IMS client implementation at IEEE NOMS 2008 and illustrated here. The user experience include See-what-I-see to enables buddies to switch to the channel I am watching, caller-ID-on-TV and VoD stream paused during calls. I referenced other pre-IMS and IMS case studies in Germany showing the convergence with soft phones (Vodafone's IP Phone Pro), handsets (Visual mailbox) and web mashup (Fraunhoffer Fokus OpenIMS project).

2008-06-16

Mobile web 2.0 summit, June 2008, London

Questions of the day at mobile web 2.0, 11th June London :
Finding monetization in the next phase of mobile web services,
Innovation in user experiences
New technologies

Monetization of mobile web is small
At the end of the day, the money around mobile web is still small compared to the substantial revenues of mobile voice and messaging. Perhaps 30 B$ content and 3 B$ advertising compared to over 600B$ voice, SMS and data access. But you can’t milk a calf and the business will grow.

Tony Fish, CEO, AMF Ventures & Author, “Mobile Web 2.0” presented the opportunity in monetizing the mobile digital footprint (user profile and behavior ). The new world focuses on the [UGC] creation side and posting mobile content to the web. Advertising revenues complement value-added service charging models. This is a transition from the old world mobile industry focused on consumption, centered on payment for services, applications and content. But thee new world will not wipe the old word it will improve it.

The monetization opportunities coming from uniqueness of mobile :
Mobile payment, complementing credit cards and cash ; in the old world you get back services and content.
Mobile footprint : (data follows you all the time leading to accurate digital footprint, advanced personalization, beyond identity protected by AAA (bank and credit card details), location) ;. in the new world you give your footprint to the community and get in return reputation, enhanced search algorithms and results; the ownership of this meta-data is a new battle ground.


Nick E. Heller, Strategic Partnerships, Media & Publishing, Google. He also sees mobile advertising complementing overall advertising with unique features :
Location remains the top unique selling proposition, despite the fact that this is a 10-years old idea.
Usage pattern : 8:00 (commute), 12:00 (lunch) and most important 22:00 (bed time).
Device interaction : primarly SMS (CPM) today – evolving to web searches (CPC) and user interaction (CPA) using cameras such as Android scan (taking pictures of barcodes to trigger searches).
User authentication was one aspect when discussing privacy protection, safe search, personalized advertising (context sensitive)

Stéphanie Hospital, VP Marketing, Orange online advertising : said the priority is to establish basic metrics for mobile advertising and expand the main inventories in WAP banners and messaging. Current CPM/CPC rates are not significant at this stage. Experimentation with video or interaction (with Adidas to win tickets in France) shows the future potential for branding campaigns and later we will improve at user profiling.

Paul Goode from m:metrics confirmed the success of SMS advertising campaigns with 50% of EU and 20% of US subscribers having received messages. He estimated mobile media audience being 25% of all EU5+US subscribers (~ 106 million, > 6% growth) with a >3X greater usage by the 10% smart phone users (~ 37 million, 0% growth). The biggest growth is seen in social networks, used by ~ 4% of subscriber spending 1:30 hours/month on facebook.com or myspace.com, ranked in the top 5 visited sites. US now leads over Europe in mobile media consumption and web access : Americans spend 4:30 hours/month browsing, British spend 2:25 hour/month. Demographics show 45% of 28-30 year old with the biggest usage of mobile content. On the topic of smart phones he noted that N95 outsold iPhone 1:2, the iPhone being bought by those who can afford it.
Innovative user experiences
More than the money, the passion of both users and developers alike seems to fuel the development of new user experiences, whether for self-expression, social networking and the holy grail of location-enhanced services.

Carl Taylor, Director of applications and services, Hutchison Whampoa Europe : stated the priority is to improve the interaction between users, devices and content to make the experience more relevant. This involves more psychology than technology and aims at enabling consumer peer review and viral marketing. [ Carl has been an advocate of applying semantic web mark-up such as W3C Powder to ensure better relevance ]. Hutchison has made the 3 mobile broadband offer attractive to consumers and had the courage to launch Skype phone at £12 / month. They see premium content and advertising business model expanding, provided there is tuning of the delivery value-chain across operators and content providers.

Christian Lindholm, Partner and Director, Fjord : he told the story how he came late at Radisson Edwardian May Fair Hotel because his search for london mayfair hotel brought 400 results on mobile Google Maps excluding the right one. In this user experience, “places” are different than “street addresses”. He joked that London black cabs is the best LBS system because they have contextual and semantic information.

Matt Jones, Co-Founder and Lead Designer, Dopplr.com
Commenting further on looking LBS user experiences he said he liked the topic because it's so difficult and bad things can happen. Dopplr is about describing interesting parts of places and the social aspect of places. For this you may want to increase fuzziness rather than accuracy of the location.

Anja Kielman, Founder aka-aki demonstrated their innovative social service piloted in Berlin, uses bluetooth to alerts users with similar profiles logged within 20m in bars, shops and crowds. Anja says it’s designed to take your social network to the street and create connections in the real world. The web version has all the standard features like profiles, friends and messaging. The mobile version is a small Java application that you can send to friends, one connected phone can serve as a hub for the other, therefore reducing the cost of data connections.



New technologies
Virtual and real devices are also fueling innovation.

Anders Elleby, Swisscom Participation : innovative services can be launched with devices such as the Ogo2 devices adopted by (~100’000?) Swiss teenagers who can connect to MSN IM, call and now browse the web. Also mentioned, Starfruit virtual phone booth in Second Life allows SMS and offering flowers to the real world. In general MNO can innovate with network enablers (for all access networks), device applications (despite the fragmentation of platforms) and overall services, rather than focusing at declining premium content revenues.

Thomas van der Zijden, VP of Marketing for Polymer Vision: presented the “Readius” a pocket sized reader with a 5" rollable display and 3.5G connectivity. Readius uses organic materials in all elements of the display and can be rolled.

2008-05-03

Mobile youth marketing, London, May 2008

Thanks to Josh Dhaliwal, of Mobile Youth I was invited to the workout in London, May 2 2008. Graham Brown, CEO of Mobile Youth who wrote about the 7 challenges of mobile marketing proposed 3 challenges of mobile youth marketing for this workout :
Charging : from free-content to new business models
Relevance : user profiling allowing intimacy and privacy,
Trust : social dialogue between brands and consumers

Monetizing free-content with new business models
Mobile Youth marketing is about winning the heart and mind of the youth and content, music for example is a great way to succeed. It’s one reason iPod brand is such a reference. We talked about brand that fell such as Levi’s ® (from 50% market share in 1996 down to 9%) as they lost their sexy / rebellious shrink-to-fit image [yet they launched an award-winning mobile campaign promoting user-remixed ringtones and 501 jeans in 2005]. What’s the business case for free content and capped data plans ?
Music : some great examples of the free economy. Fans downloaded Radiohead’s new album Rainbows at the prices they wanted, 38% paid a total rumored to amount 9M$. Similarly, Prince's album Planet Earth was released as a freebie but the 21 London concerts sold out for 23M$. Gerd Leonhard calls this the “tap water music” vs. “bottled music” and published 3-years blog history : Music 2.0. Damien Saunders, head of music at Vodafone agreed there were lots of opportunity to monetize mobile music. But he made the point that it is about creating user experiences with lead users and rather than promoting content with advertising which is counter-productive.
Video : there was less buzz on mobile video but Rhys McLachlan of Mediacom reminded us that youth still consume 3 hours/month of TV. Other panelists saw a smaller opportunity there. [yet 3 UK had 600’000 subscribers downloading 6 million video clips sponsored by advertising and announced a sponsored music video service – and 32 million have been downloaded on 3’s SeeMeTV and O2’s LookAtMe!, from 60,000 user-generated submissions].
Graphics : an order of magnitude of mobile entertainment revenue was given by Tal Dagan, from Comverse (ring tones 10B$, ring-back tones 5B$, graphics 3B$, other 0.5B$) [I attempted to complete the picture with other publicly available figures from MEF(25B$), IDC (highest revenue from ringtones, ringback tones, mobile television and video services, 2011 forecast of 40B$), Portio Research (music 9B$, games 3B$, video 1 B$, others 17B$)]

By comparison, eMarketer estimates mobile advertising at 2.8B$ [growing to 19.1 B$ by 2012 ]. As an example beyond ringtones, Comverse’s Klonies is a solution to push avatars during call establishment (J2ME client software) instead of the CLI / phone address-book user interfaces.

User profiling driving relevance and protecting privacy
My presentation in the user profiling panel triggered lively discussions. : how far should we drive user behavior analysis and targeting ? I explained the potential for dynamic profiling with network information : your phone address book is your social graph, call and location history, presence and device information are additional dynamic profile information’s typically available in databases such as HLR/HSS, XDMS etc… And dynamic device detection can help adapt to the preferred format and channel.

On the pro side, user profiling serves both advertisers and users. Jupiter surveys that 50% of 16-25 year old youth are happy to be targeted by advertising in exchange for free content and Blyk’s 100’000 subscribers are a testimony of this. Jack Wallington of the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) representing over 86% of online advertising in the United States, gave views on the normalization of the mobile advertising profile data and related metrics.

On the opposite side privacy protection is key to maintain trust with consumers. The audience recalled the controversy around Facebook’s social advertising and Beacon Facebook Ads, an engine for sharing profiles with advertisers that lead to 50’000 users joining the MoveOn.org group until explicit permission and opt-out was enforced. On the privacy issue, IAB best practices include the opt-in opt-out facilities to give control to the user. In addition strong authentication profile should assist in enforcing child safety, such as mobile operators code of practices brokered by the European Commission to prevent bullying [15% of under 16] , access to pornographic [ #1 destination is adult, peak usage time 9pm-11pm] and violent content, and inappropriate use of camera phones and location services. I was asked about authentication mechanisms beyond USIM and passwords – my belief is that only biometric (fingerprint, face recognition) authentication can properly identify a child using a device. A related issue is SPAM which affects 80% users with 23 billion messages/year.

Matthew Snyder, now CEO of the consulting company ADO strategies has a great experience in this mobile advertising industry and provided some comments on how advanced profiling can practically be implemented with multi-channel ad-serving platforms. From the discussion I attempted to list some of the main aggregators and players in this new industry.
Nokia’s media network (Nokia’s ad Business led to the acquisition of Enpocket in 2007, a mobile campaign management with multi-modal SMS, MMS, WAP, and video delivery with analytics).
Google’s Adwords for mobile
DoubleClick Mobile (works with ad networks to deliver combination ads, road blocked ads and jump pages)
Microsoft’s subsidiary Screentonic (early leader in mobile ad serving technology for European operators)
AOL’s Platform-A Advertising.com , Quigo (content-targeted advertising), Tacoda(behavioral targeting), Adtech (online ad-serving), buy.at and Third Screen Media (platform and mobile advertising network)
Admob (home of evangelist Russell, co-author of MobHappy)
Amobee(dynamic ad insertion in multiple channels : videos, music, messaging, games, WAP)

Trusted social dialogue between brands and consumers
Can mobile social networks enhance customer relationships ? The question was debated in the panel led by Ged Caroll from Waggener Edstrom and blogger who said that customer insight can be obtained with a mix mobile marketing and traditional PR+advertising. He’s a professional advocate of blogging for marketing as he explained in a video.

Helen Keegan, from Beep Marketing raised thie issue that as of today, those who master "the black art of communication and persuasion" at major brands cannot justify the ROI of mobile marketing. How much do Brands really benefit from this ? Truth and honesty are universal values that consumers recognize said Ed Homes from Haygarth. You have to decode the responses and non-responses of customers, for example in Twitter feeds. That’s the value of on-line community moderators such as Dominic Sparke’s company Tempero which also provide information tagging. Looking for successes, everybody agreed on Japan’s mobile social networks :
Moba-ge-town by Dena [statistics : 10M mobile users, 65% 0-19, 28% 20’s, 18 B PV/month, members earn virtual Moba-Gold from watching ads, FY07 sales of 15B¥ ~ 144M$] and
Mixi [statistics : 14M users, 63% early 20’s, 22 hours/month, 20’000 advertisers, mixi mobile advertising since 2006, 8B PV/month at 0.05¥ on mobile out of 13B total, at 0.1¥, FY07 sales of 10B¥ ~ 96M$]

I commented on this in last blog . For further reading, Helen edited Tanla Mobile’s excellent guide that you can download here, she blogs on mobile marketing and runs Swedish Beers mobile gathering.

2008-04-27

3G services in Japan, April 2008

Cherry blossom in in Sapporo and Tokyo, April 14-21, revisiting my comments 2 years ago.
Growing mobile content services and networks
Mobile commerce and advertising are growing
Mobile video is still emerging
From 3G to 4G leadership

Growing mobile content services and networks
User generated content and messaging are the top usage : 25% of subscribers send more than 5 messages/day, and 10% more than 10, according to Impress. DoCoMo’s Decomail, service is popular with teenagers who use sites such as Decotomo.jp, Disney to offer purchase messaging personalization content. Social networking is growing : 10 million users (50% of teenagers, 35% of 20-30 year old) generate 20 billion PV/month on Dena’s Mobagetown, which offers free browser flash games, social networking and 10,000 digital items. 1.7 million users (25% of teenagers, 39% of 20-30 year old) generate 93 million PV/day on KDDI’s mikle.jp mobile community with 11 user generated content categories such as gaming (#3), love (#10) etc.

Internet providers have established strong partnerships with mobile operators : Web searches rank 3rd among the most popular mobile data services , behind e-mail and news. Google Search appears directly on the top screen of KKDDI and DoCoMo users with the banner enhanced by Google. Google also develops mobile applications with NTT DoCoMo, sharing behavioral mobile search data and splitting advertising revenues. Yahoo! Mobile , owned by Softbank is the country’s most popular Web portal with 18 million mobile subscribers and gets 4 billion PV/month. 14 million users (out of 82 million) access the internet exclusively from their mobile phone according to Impress R&D.

One additional driver has been the 9:1 on-deck revenue share for content providers. NTT DoComo’s i-Mode menu still drives 5 billion PV/month.

Mobile commerce and advertising have doubled
Mobile commerce is used by 36% of Japanese users and estimated ARPU of 300$ exceeds mobile content revenues according to Impress and Infinita. NTT DoCoMo provides Rakutenchi mobile auctions on the i-menu and Softbank offers Yahoo! Shopping and Auctions. For mobile payment , 30% of handsets support the Sony Felica RFID chip for contact less transactions at train and plane gates and with more than 70 commercial retailers.

Mobile advertising revenues doubled since 2006 to 620 M$ (62.1 ¥B) and 25% of Japanese companies use it . This is still only 10% of on-line advertising spending at 4.4B$ (443 B¥) and 1% of total advertising, according to Dentsu communication institute. Typical banner rates are 5’000-10’000$/week for 2-20 million PV and there is a large choice of options between these. Mobile advertising was the topic of the MoMo Tokyo meeting on April 21st at Google’s offices in Shibuya . An example of mobile online community using Mobile Adsense is mikle.jp. They have 129 million PV/month and 2.3 million users/month.

Mobile video is maturing
Mobile broadcasting branded “1seg” was introduced in Japan in 2006 and now reaches 25 million subscribers in Japan can receive broadcast TV on mobile , with a data link for mobile information or advertising. Check 1 seg on YouTube.
On the user generated video content, one service is My Tube from a mobile service provider called Key Life that provides video sharing aggregation ( from You Tube, Google Video, Ameba vision, Dailymotion), with a specific focus on for Japanese content. And there is a very small usage of video calling for similar video bloging experiences. In general, video calling quality was very good and international calls worked very well.

My Japanese colleagues showed demos of video convergence across TV screens, PCs and mobile handsets with the related issues of video adaptation and service control.


From 3G to 4G leadership
Japans counts over 90 million 3G subscribers (+30 million since 2006) according to Impress R&D :
25 million have usage-based contracts
38 million have flat rate contracts
25 million use 3.5G HSxPA

Throughout my visit I was impressed by the high quality of coverage, even in-building. Last month, NTT DoCoMo announced the result of their 3G long term evolution (LTE) tests in Yokosuka, south of Tokyo. They achieved downlink transmission at 250Mbps using a multiple input multiple output (MIMO) with a 4-antenna base station using the full 20MHz bandwidth (specifying 300 Mbps peak ) . They advertise this as “Super G” and talk about a first network roll out in 2010. Mobile gaming and mobile TV applications will be enhanced through the introduction of LTE, benefiting from < 10ms latency and high peak-rates. 70 million 4G subscribers are forecasted by 2013 (Europe 30 million, Asia Pacific 21 millions and North America 17 million) according to Informa.

Evolution of service infrastructure
In a panel in Sapporo we discussed service infrastructure, together with George Mc Gregor, VP of services at HP OpenCall, Dr. Suphachet Phermphoonwatanasuk, from AIS in Thailand , Martin Gutberlet, VP Research at Gartner. Gartner’s view of the top mobile business opportunities includes : mobile TV 40 B$, mobile music 31 B$, mobile broadband 28 B$, mobile advertising 14 B$. AIS discussed their target architecture to combine voice, music and video services using VXML and SIP application servers on 2G and 3G networks. In a following talk in Tokyo, I demonstrated mobile instant communications, video blogging and the use of web technology such as WSDL network APIs, JSR309 Java APIs, and SMIL) to provide interfaces to networks and create interactive video services.

Subscriber statistics update
DoCoMo 53.4 million
KDDI 30.2 million, slight decrease due to phase-out of Tu-Ka
Softbank 18.8 million, growing